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Friday, March 6, 2009

Weekly Stock Market Letter, 23 February 2009

The Week Ahead: Although the White House continues to favor a privately held banking system, nationalization seems to be gaining the upper hand as many believe this to be inevitable. President Obama will address Congress on Tuesday while Ben Bernanke begins his two day testimony on Capital Hill. The Case Shiller House Price Index is also released. Existing home sales data is out on Wednesday. Durable goods and new home sales data are due by Thursday. Lastly, a preliminary look at the nations GDP for the fourth quarter on Friday will be closely watched.Stocks to Watch: Kindred Healthcare (KND) surprised many by beating EPS estimates and lifting their 2009 target as the stock reached a 4 month high. Cabela's (CAB), the outdoor sporting goods company, also broke strongly to the upside after beating estimates for their Q4. Actuant (ATU) shares fell because preliminary Q2 sales will be off by 23%. Tim Horton's (THI), the Canadian retaurant chain, boosted its quarterly dividend by 10 cents after releasing its Q4 results. Morningstar (MORN) came in light on their Q4 EPS and the stock fell about 14%.Special Note: The Dow Industrials are leading the market lower as it reached its lowest level since October 2002 and joined the Dow Transports in breaking last November's low. It's possible that some form of nationalization of the major banks could be the catalyzing event that would produce a more lasting low in the major indexes since the peak in October 2007 but at what level? All the major indexes are currently below their 20 year MA and long term charts indicate the 30 year moving averages at 5800, 675, and 1200 on the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq respectively.Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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