Seasonality in Forex

Efficient markets theory would suggest that the inherent randomness of commodity prices should be preserved from month to month, such that on average, prices are equally likely to go up as they are to fall. In practice, we know that earnings and tax calenders are such that stocks consistently perform better in some months, than they do in others. Such patterns can also be observed in forex markets.The Dollar, for example, typically rises in January, probably as a result of the US stock market to rise likewise. In February, meanwhile, one analyst has observed a consistent decline in volatility between the Yen and the Dollar. The implication is that with lower volatility will follow a sell-off in the Yen, due to renewed interest in the carry trade. Of course, this may not hold in the current market environment, as both currencies are now being used to fund carry trades and are being punished accordingly when risk tolerance increases.